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中国时间: 10:41 2016年12月05日星期一

何清涟: 普京、北京别高兴,穆巴拉克在招手


编者按:这是何清涟为美国之音撰写的评论文章。这篇特约评论不代表美国之音的观点转载者请注明来自美国之音或者VOA。

以这两位在不同国度掌权的强人做比较,是因为2012年普京赢得俄罗斯总统选举与2005年的穆巴拉克胜选情形太过相似。

在一片反对声中,普京当选为俄罗斯总统。与普京一样高兴的有北京以及中国几大喉舌官媒,除了乐见一强权政治得以延续之外,他们还从中看到了世界格局将会发生对中国极其有利的变化,并作出预测:“毕竟俄罗斯仍是自冷战以来军事实力最可以和美国抗衡的。随着目前全球局势变化,普京未来12年在总统宝座上一定程度上会给世界格局产生影响,不管是在亚洲、中东地区、还是南海地区。”

其实,无论是普京还是北京都不要高兴得太早,因为2012年俄罗斯大选情形让我想起了中东强人穆巴拉克2005年的高票当选,两者情形大体相似,而且穆巴拉克当时遇到的反对声音远比今日普京所遇到的要小得多。谓予言之不信,请看下列事实:

一、埃及2005年与俄罗斯2012年的选举中,穆氏与普京都以压倒性优势赢得选举。

2005年9月9日晚,埃及最高总统选举委员会正式宣布:执政的民族民主党候选人、现任总统穆罕默德•胡斯尼•穆巴拉克在9月7日举行的埃及历史上首次有多名候选人参加的总统选举中赢得压倒性胜利,第五次当选埃及总统。据统计,在这次选举中,穆巴拉克获得了88.57%的选票,取得压倒性的胜选优势。

2012年3月4日俄罗斯总统大选中,普京也以绝对优势胜选。这一天,俄罗斯中央选举委员会宣布,在有多名候选人参加竞选的情况下,普京以压倒性的优势胜出,当选为俄罗斯联邦的总统。据公布选票的统计结果,此次选举中,总统候选人、现任总理普京得票率为63.6%。俄共候选人久加诺夫以17.18%的得票率位居第二,其余三位候选人普罗霍罗夫、日里诺夫斯基和米罗诺夫的得票率分别为7.98%、6.22%和3.85%。

二、两次选举中,穆氏与普京都具备其他竞争者所不具备的政治优势。

2005年之前,埃及的总统选举是穆巴拉克在玩“一个人的游戏”,先由埃及议会先提名和通过唯一候选人,再由全体公民投票选举总统。2005年,在美国的压力下,埃及制定一部《埃及总统选举法规定》。根据这部新的法规,埃及最高总统选举委员会于8月11日在50多位由政党推荐或以独立身份自荐的人士当中确定了10名总统候选人。除了执政的民族民主党推举的穆巴拉克总统外,比较有影响力的只有两位:一位是具有悠久历史的华夫脱党的党主席努曼•戈马;另一位则是2004年10月刚刚成立的明日党的主席艾曼•努尔。其他7名候选人在民众中缺乏基础和声望。

穆巴拉克的政治反对者主要集中于开罗的青年知识分子群体中,广大中小城镇和农村一直在穆巴拉克及其民族民主党的牢牢控制之下。

俄罗斯的政治反对派一直存在,但其实力无法与普京相比。即使是俄国共产党利用人们怀旧的心理,其政治支持率也从未超过20%。与穆巴拉克的支持者相同,根据对投票情况的分析,边远、落后地区的居民更支持普京,而在莫斯科,普京的得票率只有47.22%,即使在普京的家乡圣彼得堡,也有不少反对普京的人士。

从支持者的文化素质与开放度来看,偏好专制者的人往往居住于受教育程度相对低,信息处于相对封闭的落后地区与农村。

三、反西方情结在俄罗斯及2005年的埃及选举中都起重要作用。

对于以民主自由为号召的政治反对派来说,普京与穆巴拉克都采取了污名化的宣传手段,宣称反对派背后有西方势力支持。

2005年埃及总统大选中,穆氏之外的9名候选人并无足够的优势与穆巴拉克竞争。其中被穆巴拉克打压的努尔,毕业于大学法律系,因办报提倡言论自由与民主价值观而获得社会声誉,并于1995年和2000年两次当选埃及新华夫脱党的国会议员。2004年成立明天党,其影响力主要集中在开罗的少数青年知识分子当中。在选举之前,努尔被穆氏阵营贴上“充当西方势力渗透中介”的标签。对与穆巴拉克一道参选的其他9名候选人,穆氏阵营认为“难以对拥有丰富执政经验的穆巴拉克构成威胁”,连中国官媒都宣称这9名候选人与穆巴拉克相比,“都只能算作陪太子读书的角色”。

恢复俄罗斯的大国地位一直是普京凝聚支持力量的手段。支持普京的一方始终宣称西方给了某些反对派以资金支持。即使在胜选之后,俄罗斯战略发展模拟中心第一副主任格里戈里.特罗菲姆丘克还坚持对《瞭望东方周刊》说类似的话,“普京最近也会遇到很多外部的困难,但是我觉得这次选举中反对派的做法并没有创意,虽然也有人说西方给了某些反对派资金。” 在胜选之后,普京的支持者甚至说“对其他候选人来说,这个选举更像一个政治娱乐活动”。“反对派的活动越多,他们的前途就越少。”普京的胜选甚至被宣传成“俄罗斯对西方的胜利”。

中文媒体不吝笔墨,不厌其烦地称赞普京的人格魅力及其将俄罗斯从叶利钦时代的内政混乱中挽救出来的功绩。但埃及人对穆巴拉克曾经有过的赞许比普京所获得的要高许多,比如他曾在 “十月战争”中立下赫赫战功、处事沉着,富有牺牲精神,知识渊博,都是埃及讴歌的素材。穆氏人生经历绚丽多彩,波澜壮阔,极富传奇色彩,更非只做过克格勃少校的普京能够望其项背。但从来民意如流水,穆巴拉克因为贪恋权位,如今被埃及人民赶下政治舞台,父子三人同囚铁笼受审,穆巴拉克的夫人苏珊娜曾被埃及妇女视为阿拉伯世界女性权益保护人、女人中的极品冠军,如今也因为丈夫失去权势而备受指责羞辱。

当普京与北京共同为普京重登俄罗斯总统宝座鼓掌叫好之时,不妨看看曾经英雄一世的穆巴拉克。仔细想来,穆巴拉克也就是在那个位置上多恋了一年多而已,如果在任期届满之前宣布退隐,或者提前交班,何至于象如今这样身名俱裂,铁笼加身?

Putin and Beijing, Mubarak is Waving at You!

By He Qinglian on March 20, 2012
Translated by kRiZcPEc

http://hqlenglish.blogspot.com/2012/03/putin-beijing-and-mubarak.html

I made a comparison between this two strong men in power of different countries because a strong parallel could easily be drawn between the way Vladimir Putin won the Russian presidential election and the way Hosni Mubarak became elected.

Vladimir Putin became president-elect amid a wave of oppositions, and his joy was shared by Beijing and the major mouthpieces of China. Apart from the desire to see that a power politics could carry on, Beijing and the Chinese state media saw in Putin’s victory a change in the course of the world development that would be much in their favor and they predicted that, “Since the end of the Cold War, Russia still remains on a par with the U.S. in terms of military power. As the world’s current situation changes, Putin, the president of Russia, will influence to a certain extent on the global landscape in the next 12 years—whether it is Asia, the Middle East, or the South China Sea regions.”

However, both Putin and Beijing had better not to be happy about the election result so soon—the events of the Russian general election in 2012 reminded me of the landslide victory of Hosni Mubarak, the Middle East strong man back then. There are many similarities between the two, and the opposition Hosni Mubarak faced at that time was much smaller than what Vladimir Putin faces today.

Below are some facts supporting my judgment:

One, in the Egyptian election in 2005 and the Russian election in 2012, Mubarak and Putin had an overwhelming victory respectively.

On the night of September 9, 2005, the Presidential Election Commission officially announced that the ruling National Democratic Party candidate, incumbent president Mohammed Hosni Mubarak, won a landslide victory in Eygpt’s first-ever multi-candidate presidential election held on September 7 and was elected president for the fifth consecutive time. According to the statistics, Hosni Mubarak won in this election 88.57% of the vote, and secured an overwhelming victory.

And in the Russian election held on March 4, 2012, Vladimir Putin too won with an absolute advantage. On that day, the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation announced that, even though there were several other candidates, Vladimir Putin won the election hands down and became president-elect of the Russian Federation. According to the released statistical results of the vote, presidential candidate, current prime minister Vladimir Putin got 63.6% of the vote; Russian Communist Party candidate Gennady Zyuganov came in second with 17.18% of the vote; the remaining three candidates Mikhail Prokhorov, Vladimir Zhirinovsky and Sergey Mironov got 7.98%, 6.22% and 3.85% of the vote respectively.

Two, in both elections, Mubarak and Putin enjoyed a political edge over their opponents

Before 2005, the Egyptian presidential election was a “one-man game” that Mubarak played. First, the Egyptian parliament nominated and approved a sole candidate, and then the whole country voted to elect their president. Under U.S. pressure, Egypt enacted in 2005 the “Egyptian presidential election law”. In accordance with that law, the Presidential Election Commission was to affirm on August 11 ten presidential candidates from the fifty-odd persons nominated by political parties or self-recommended to run in the election. Apart from the ruling National Democratic Party nominated President Hosni Mubarak, there were only two other candidates who considerably had some influence: Numan Gumaa of the long existed New Wafd Party, and Ayman Nour of the Tomorrow Party, which established only in October 2004. All the rest of the candidates did not have public support and prestige.

Mubarak’s political opponents mainly concentrated among the young intellectuals in Cairo, whereas the country’s medium and small towns and rural areas were under Mubarak and his National Democratic Party’s firm control.

Russia’s political oppositions existed all along, but their strength was no match of Vladimir Putin. And even the Russian Communist Party had never had a support rate that exceeded 20%, despite its use of the people’s nostalgic sentiments. Based on the analysis on the vote, those in favor of Vladimir Putin were mainly from the remote, backward regions, as had been the case for the supporters of Hosni Mubarak. In Moscow however, Putin got only 47.22% of the vote. And even in Vladimir Putin’s hometown, the city of St. Petersburg, there were a good few of those who opposed him.

Judging from the cultural qualities and openness of the supporters, it is evident that those prefer authoritarian ruler usually live in backward regions and rural areas, where the people are relatively less educated and where information is relatively closed.

Three, Anti-West sentiments played an important role in both elections

Both Putin and Mubarak had resorted to the propaganda means to stigmatize the opposition which appealed for support with freedom and democracy. They claimed that the opposition was backed by Western forces.

In the Egyptian presidential election in 2005, none of the nine candidates had enough advantage to compete with Hosni Mubarak. Among them, Ayman Nour graduated from the Faculty of Law and gained reputation through his efforts in running a newspaper to promote freedom of expression and democratic values, and was twice elected as member of the Parliament in 1995 and 2000.

Established in 2004, the Tomorrow Party influenced chiefly a few young intellectuals in Cairo. Before the election, Mubarak’s camp labeled Nour as “an intermediary to facilitate the Western forces’ penetration”. In the eyes of those in Mubarak’s camp, all nine candidates contesting alongside Hosni Mubarak could hardly pose any threat to Hosni Mubarak, who had extensive experience in governance. Even the Chinese official media said that, in comparison with Hosni Mubarak, all nine candidates had no hope of victory at all.

The restoration of Russia’s status as a great power has always been what Vladimir Putin uses to gain support. All along those support Vladimir Putin claim that some of the opposition is funded by the West. Even after Vladimir Putin has won the election, the “first deputy director of the Russian Strategic Development Simulation Center” reportedly carried on saying similar remarks to Oriental Outlook, a Xinhua subsidiary, “Putin will face many external troubles. I saw in opponents’ campaigns no creativity, even though it is said that some of them received funds from the West.” Putin’s supporters even said that, “for other candidates, this election looked more like a political entertainment activity.” “The more activities the opposition organizes, the grimmer their future will be.” Putin’s victory was even described as “Russia’s triumph over the West”.

The Chinese media spared no ink and efforts in praising the personal charisma of Vladimir Putin and his accomplishments of rescuing Russia from the domestic political chaos of the Yeltsin era. But the praise Hosni Mubarak had at a point received more praise from the Egyptian people than Vladimir Putin does today. The Egyptian eulogized Hosni Mubarak for a range of things: his great accomplishments in the “October War”, his composed manner, his spirit of sacrifice, and his being a knowledgeable person were just several examples. Hosni Mubarak has a colorful, magnificent, and legendary life, one that Vladimir Putin, a mere former KGB major, could in no way be comparable.

Despite all the popularity Hosni Mubarak enjoyed, people’s heart changes like tides. Hosni Mubarak was driven off the stage of politics by the Egyptian people for his obsession with power and was made to stand trial inside a cage alongside his wife and his son. Mubarak’s wife Suzanne Mubarak, once in the eyes of Egyptian women the guardian of the rights of women in the Arab world, and the best of women, is now facing accusations and humiliations after her husband has been ousted.

When Beijing and Vladimir Putin applaud and cheer for his victory in the presidential election, I’d suggest them to have a look at the stage the erstwhile hero Hosni Mubarak is in now. Think carefully about it, Hosni Mubarak stayed in his country’s top post for but a few more years. Had he announced to step down before his term expired or arranged a succession in advance, would he be in this situation of shame and humiliation, being made to stand trial inside a cage?
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