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中国时间 5:09 2019年12月16日 星期一

双语新闻(2018年3月5日)


韩国高级国家安全顾问郑义荣(中)、韩国国家情报院院长徐薰(左二)与韩国代表团其他成员在首尔的一个军事基地登机前合影。(2018年3月5日)

韩国总统特使据报道会晤了金正恩

据报道,韩国总统文在寅的特使星期一会晤了朝鲜领导人金正恩。报道说,金正恩为来自韩国的代表举行了晚餐会。

由文在寅的高级国家安全顾问郑义荣率领的10人代表团罕见地从首尔直飞平壤,传递文在寅关切朝鲜半岛去核化和永久和平的信息。

郑义荣赴朝前在首尔对记者发表谈话时表示,他会转达“文在寅总统坚定不移地实现半岛无核化和真正的永久和平的决心。”

郑义荣还表示,他将推动“深入”会谈,以期帮助安排平壤与华盛顿之间的对话。

他表示,“为此,我们计划不仅就南北之间的谈判,而且就朝鲜继续与包括美国在内的国际社会谈判的方式进行深入讨论。

”不过,美韩预计进行的联合军事演习可能使这次使命变得复杂。朝鲜官方的朝中社发表评论警告说,如果美国在四月份与韩国举行联合军事演习,平壤将“对抗美国”。

特别代表团中的韩国国家情报院院长徐薰(Suh Hoon)是一名与北方打交道的资深人士。据信徐薰曾深度参与安全2000年和2007年前两次朝韩首脑会议。

在对朝鲜进行为期两天的访问之后,韩国特使将前往美国向美国官员介绍他们在平壤的讨论情况。

文在寅总统派遣特使前往平壤,是为了回报金正恩上月派遣包括其胞妹金与正在内的高级代表团参加在平昌举行的冬季奥运会。文在寅尚未接受金正恩希望他访问平壤的邀请。

朝鲜官员们对文在寅表示,他们愿意重启与美国的会谈,但川普总统表示谈判只会在“合适的条件下”进行。

South Korean Envoys to Meet With North Korean Leader

Special envoys from South Korean President Moon Jae-in have reportedly met with North Korean leader Kim Jong Un Monday. Media reports say Kim hosted a dinner for the South Koreans.

The 10-member delegation headed by Moon's top national security advisor, Chung Eui-Yong, arrived in Pyongyang after a rare direct flight from Seoul to convey Moon's message concerning denuclearization and a permanent peace on the Korean Peninsula.

Speaking to reporters in Seoul before his departure, Chung said that he would “deliver President Moon's strong determination and willingness for denuclearizing the Korean Peninsula, and making genuine and permanent peace (on the Peninsula)."

Chung also said he will push for "in-depth" talks to find ways to help arrange the restart of dialogue between Pyongyang and Washington.

"For this, we plan to have in-depth discussions not only on South-North talks, but also ways to continue talks between North Korea and the international community, including the United States," Chung said.

That mission could be complicated by military planned drills, however, as a commentary published by North Korea's official KCNA news agency warned that Pyongyang would "counter the U.S." if it holds joint military exercises with South Korea in April.

The special delegation the head of the National Intelligence Service, Suh Hoon, who is a veteran in dealings with the North. Hoon is known to have been deeply involved in negotiations to arrange two previous inter-Korean summits in 2000 and 2007.

After the two-day visit to North Korea, the South Korean special envoys will travel to the United States to brief American officials on their discussions in Pyongyang.

In sending his envoys to Pyongyang, Moon is seeking to reciprocate Kim Jong Un's decision to send a senior delegation, including his sister, Kim Yo Jong, to last month's Winter Olympics in Pyeongchang. Moon has yet to accept Kim Jong Un's invitation to visit Pyongyang.

Those North Korean officials told Moon they were willing to restart talks with the U.S., but President Donald Trump responded by saying talks will happen only “under the right conditions.''

对朝非法贸易影响制裁效果

朝鲜去年出口额骤降,但同时矿物和武器非法贸易增加,使得目前对朝鲜实施更严厉制裁的影响很难衡量。

美国总统川普的“最大压力”战略旨在增加对朝鲜的制裁,迫使金正恩政府同意放弃其威胁性的核武器和弹道导弹计划,否则陷入更大的困境,可能导致内部崩溃。如果制裁无法结束朝鲜的核威胁,川普政府强调也将准备使用武力。

在2017年8月和9月实施的、由美国主导的联合国安理会最新一轮对朝制裁,包括全面禁止朝鲜价值30亿美元的煤炭和其他矿物的出口,其8亿美元的服装制造业产出,其利润丰厚的海鲜产业,以及削减石油进口的三分之一。

朝中贸易占朝鲜贸易总额的90%以上。中国称2017年对朝出口额由于制裁而下降37%。如果制裁全面执行,将导致2018年朝鲜出口减少90%,损失估计大约23亿美元。独立媒体消息证实,在与朝鲜贸易最集中的中国边境城市丹东,贸易和商业活动明显减少。

据报道,根据联合国的制裁措施,一些中国银行也限制了朝鲜的金融活动,导致平壤的外汇储备迅速降低。

但有人担心,中国、俄罗斯和其他国家通过走私禁运商品、化学武器,以及网络攻击等非法活动支撑朝鲜经济。

最近公布的一份联合国机密报告的部分内容显示,朝鲜去年通过使用虚假文件,与在中国、马来西亚、俄罗斯和越南的外国公司共同进行的煤炭和其他被禁商品贸易,为朝鲜盈利近2亿美元。

虽然北京和莫斯科投票支持安理会对朝鲜实施强硬制裁,但两国都希望维持朝鲜半岛的经济和政治稳定,并呼吁加强谈判以和平解决在朝鲜核问题上的对峙。

有报道称,俄罗斯正在成为朝鲜禁运煤炭的新中转枢纽,以填补中国的出口禁令带来的空白。莫斯科和平壤否认了这些非法煤炭贸易的指控。不过即使事实如此,俄罗斯也只占朝鲜贸易的2%。

日本近几个月来还报告说,侦察机的信息显示了4起涉嫌在受到制裁的朝鲜船只和国际船只之间的海上非法转运。

美国2月份对与朝鲜有关的航运公司和船只公布了新的单方面制裁措施,以限制船对船的非法转运。华盛顿试图在上一轮联合国制裁中采取强制拦截朝鲜船只的措施,但无法说服中国和俄罗斯就此达成一致。

North Korea Sanctions Impact Mitigated By Illicit Trade

It is difficult to gauge the impact of the increased sanctions imposed on North Korea, with reports of both plummeting exports in the last year and increasing illicit trade of banned minerals and arms.

U.S. President Donald Trump’s “maximum pressure” strategy aims to increase sanctions on North Korea and force the Kim Jong Un government to seek relief by agreeing to give up its threatening nuclear weapons and ballistic missile program, or face increasing hardship and possible collapse from within. If sanctions fail to end the North Korean nuclear threat, the Trump administration has emphasized it is prepared to use military force, as well.

The latest U.S.-led round of sanctions at the United Nations Security Council, which were imposed in August and September of 2017, produced a total export ban on North Korea’s $3 billion coal and other mineral industries, its $800 million clothing manufacturing output, and its lucrative seafood industry, as well as cutting oil imports by a third.

China, which accounts for over 90 percent of North Korea’s total trade, reported a 37 percent drop in exports from the North in 2017 as a result of the sanctions. If fully enforced, the restrictions would cut the North’s exports by 90 percent in 2018, a loss estimated to be worth $2.3 billion. Independent media reports have confirmed significantly reduced trade and business activity in Dandong, the Chinese border city where most trade with North Korea occurs.

A number of Chinese banks have also reportedly restricted North Korea financial activities, in compliance with U.N. sanctions, which is rapidly reducing Pyongyang’s foreign currency reserves.

There are concerns that China, Russia and other counties are illicitly bolstering the North Korean economy through the smuggling of banned commodities, along with arms and chemical weapons sales, and cyber attacks.

Portions of a confidential United Nations report that was recently made public said North Korea earned close to $200 million from exporting coal and other banned commodities last year by using false documents and complicit foreign companies in China, Malaysia, Russia and Vietnam.

While Beijing and Moscow voted in favor of imposing tough sanctions on North Korea in the Security Council, both also want to maintain economic and political stability on the Korean Peninsula, and have called for increased negotiations to peacefully resolve the nuclear stand-off.

There have been reports that Russia is becoming a new transit hub for banned North Korean coal to compensate for the export ban in China. Moscow and Pyongyang have denied these illicit coal trade accusations. Even if true, Russia accounts for only 2 percent of North Korea’s trade.

In recent months Japan also reported four suspected illegal transfers at sea between sanctioned North Korean vessels and international ships that were witnessed by surveillance aircraft.

The U.S. in February issued new unilateral sanctions on companies and vessels linked to North Korean shipping to restrict illicit ship- to-ship transfers. Washington tried to include forced maritime interceptions of North Korean vessels in the last round of U.N. sanctions but could not convince Chins and Russia to agree.

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