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中国时间 3:02 2017年12月18日 星期一

双语新闻(2017年11月30日)

  • 美国之音

皮尤中心对欧洲人口中穆斯林比例做出三种假设

报告:不管有没有移民 欧洲穆斯林人口都将增加

总部设在华盛顿的皮尤研究中心星期三发布的一份报告说,即使欧洲国家对所有移民和难民关闭边界,欧洲大陆人口中穆斯林的比例今后30年仍将持续上升。

皮尤研究中心的数据显示,欧洲2016年人口中有4.9%是穆斯林,总人数为2580万,分布在30个国家,而2010年的同比数字是3.8%,约1950万人。进入欧洲的穆斯林人数2014年之后大幅度增加,平均每年将近50万,主要是因为他们逃离叙利亚、伊拉克和阿富汗的冲突。

皮尤研究中心的研究涵盖欧盟28个成员国,以及挪威和瑞士。

皮尤报告做了三个假设:2016年到2050年期间移民人数为零;中等程度的移民数量,即难民潮停止,但是基于其它原因的移民活动继续进行;大量移民,即2014年到2016年创纪录的移民人数将来永远不变,移民中的各宗教信仰比例不变。

按照第一种假设,穆斯林在总人口中的比例仍将继续增加,因为穆斯林的平均年龄比欧洲人口平均年龄低13岁,同时生育率也高。报告预计,即使今后移民人数为零,2050年欧洲人口中穆斯林的比例仍将增长到7.4%。

按照第二种假设,中等程度的移民数量,2050年欧洲人口中穆斯林的比例将增长到11.2%。而如果是第三种假设,按照2014到2016年穆斯林移民进入欧洲的速度,欧洲人口到2050年将有7500万穆斯林,相当于欧洲人口的14%。

报告说,即使按照最快的增长速度,穆斯林在欧洲人口中的比例仍将低于基督徒和无宗教信仰者。

Report: Muslim Population in Europe Projected to Rise, Migration or Not

Even if European countries closed their borders to all migrants and refugees, the percentage of Muslims on the continent would continue to rise over the next three decades, according to a report released Wednesday by the Washington-based Pew Research Center.

According to Pew’s data, Muslims made up 4.9 percent of Europe’s population in 2016, with an estimated 25.8 million people across 30 countries, up from 3.8 percent, or 19.5 million people, in 2010. The number of Muslim migrants arriving in Europe surged after 2014 to almost a half-million annually, largely due to people fleeing conflicts in Syria, Iraq and Afghanistan.

The countries covered in the study included the 28 European Union members, plus Norway and Switzerland.

The report considered three scenarios: zero migration between 2016 and 2050; medium migration, in which the flow of refugees stops but people continue to migrate for other reasons; and high migration, in which the record flow of migrants between 2014 and 2016 continues indefinitely with the same religious composition.

Under the first scenario, the population would continue to grow because Muslims are, on average, 13 years younger than other Europeans and also have a higher birthrate. The study projected Muslims could make up 7.4 percent of the European population by 2050, even with zero migration.

Under the medium migration scenario, Muslims could account for 11.2 percent of Europe's population by 2050. While under the high migration, the record flow of migrants who came to Europe between 2014 and 2016 would continue indefinitely, resulting in 75 million Muslims in Europe, or about 14 percent of the population by the middle of the century.

But even the scenario with the largest growth leaves the Muslim population considerably smaller than the populations of both Christians and people with no religion in Europe, according to the report.

教宗被批闭口不提罗兴亚人问题

罗马天主教宗方济各访问缅甸4天后抵达孟加拉国访问。教宗此次出访一直没有公开提到罗兴亚穆斯林难民危机的问题,引起注意。

教宗方济各在缅甸最大城市、曾经是首都的仰光为年轻的天主教徒主持了弥撒后,星期四离开缅甸。

人权活动人士批评教宗方济各没有专门提到罗兴亚人的问题。缅甸人口以佛教徒为主,罗兴亚人是缅甸的一个少数族裔,数十年来一直被剥夺基本权利。缅甸政府将他们视为来自孟加拉国的难民,尽管很多罗兴亚家庭已经在缅甸生活了好几代。

今年8月,缅甸警察在若开邦的哨卡受到罗兴亚激进分子的攻击后,缅甸政府军开始对罗兴亚村庄进行焦土攻击,罗兴亚人的处境更加糟糕。政府军的残酷攻击,以及大规模强奸和肆意杀戮的消息导致62万多罗兴亚人逃到孟加拉国。联合国称之为典型的种族清洗。

教宗方济各以前在公开讲话中谴责了罗兴亚人受到的对待,但是他的顾问建议他在缅甸不要提这个问题,担心会对缅甸的65万天主教徒造成不利影响。

缅甸主教若望·盛赫基星期三对罗兴亚人遭受杀戮的说法提出质疑,呼吁批评缅甸政府的人到现场去研究有关问题的现实和历史,了解真相。

梵蒂冈发言人星期三说,教宗方济各在这个问题上没有失去他的道德权威,并说教宗在与缅甸实际领导人昂山素季和大权在握的军方首脑敏昂兰将军的不公开会谈中可能更直接地谈到这个问题。

预计教宗方济各在孟加拉访问期间会与一些罗兴亚难民见面。

Pontiff slammed by for not publicly addressing Muslim Rohingya refugee crisis

Pope Francis has arrived in Bangladesh after a four-day visit to neighboring Myanmar, a trip marked by his refusal to publicly address the Muslim Rohingya refugee crisis.

The pontiff departed Myanmar Thursday after celebrating a final Mass for young Catholics in Yangon, the country's largest city and its former capital.

Francis has been criticized by human rights activists for not specifically mentioning the Rohingyas, a minority ethnic group that has been denied basic rights for decades in the majority Buddhist-majority Myanmar, which views them as immigrants from Bangladesh, despite the fact that many families have lived in Myanmar for generations.

Their situation has worsened since August, when the military launched a scorched earth campaign against Rohingya villages in northern Rakhine state in response to attacks on Myanmar police outposts on Rohingya militants. The brutal campaign, including reports of mass rapes and indiscriminate killings, triggered a mass exodus of more than 620,000 Rohingyas into Bangladesh, which the United Nations has described as "a textbook example of ethnic cleansing."

The pope has denounced the treatment of the Rohingyas in previous public remarks, but his advisers counseled him not to speak about the issue while in Myanmar, for fear of a backlash against the 650,000 Catholics in the country.

Myanmar Bishop John Hsane Hgyi went even further Wednesday, casting doubt about the reported atrocities against the Rohingyas, and urging critics of the Myanmar government to go to the scene "to study the reality and history" of the issue and learn the truth.

A Vatican spokesman said Wednesday that Pope Francis has not lost his "moral authority" on the issue, and suggested he may have been far more direct during his private talks with de facto leader Aung San Suu Kyi and powerful military chief Min Aung Hlaing.

Pope Francis is expected to meet with a group of Rohingya refugees during his stay in Bangladesh.

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